Churchill Downs Stock Intrinsic Value – Churchill Downs Sees Surge in Short Interest as Investors Bet Against Horse Racing Giant
November 1, 2024

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Churchill Downs ($NASDAQ:CHDN) Incorporated, a leading horse racing and entertainment company, has recently caught the attention of investors as its short interest surged in October. This increase in short interest suggests that more investors are betting against the company’s stock, believing that its value will decline in the near future. For those unfamiliar with Churchill Downs Inc., the company is best known for hosting the annual Kentucky Derby, one of the most prestigious horse racing events in the world. In addition to its iconic racing events, Churchill Downs Inc. also owns and operates casinos, online wagering platforms, and various other gaming and entertainment properties. This has likely contributed to the increase in short interest, as investors may see potential for further decline in the company’s stock. Short interest refers to the number of shares that have been sold short by investors, meaning they have borrowed shares and sold them in the hopes of buying them back at a lower price in the future. This is a way for investors to profit from a decline in a company’s stock value. This surge in short interest could also be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election and potential impacts on the economy.
However, it is worth noting that short selling can be a risky strategy, as if a company’s stock price unexpectedly rises, short sellers may be forced to buy back shares at a loss.
Additionally, Churchill Downs Inc. has a strong track record and a loyal customer base, making it a formidable player in the horse racing industry. While the reasons for this may vary, it remains to be seen how this will impact the company’s future performance and if the short sellers’ bets will pay off.
Price History
On Tuesday, the company’s stock opened at $140.4 and closed at $144.2, representing a 2.15% increase from the prior closing price of 141.17. This spike in short interest is a clear indication that investors are betting against the stock’s performance. Short interest refers to the number of shares that have been sold short by investors. In simpler terms, it is a measure of how many investors are betting against a particular stock. When short interest increases, it means that more investors are expecting the stock’s price to decrease in the near future. In recent years, there have been numerous cases of racehorse deaths and injuries, raising concerns about the ethical treatment of these animals. This has led to calls for stricter regulations and potential boycotts of horse racing events, which could have a negative impact on Churchill Downs‘ revenue. This has led to a decline in revenue for companies like Churchill Downs, which heavily rely on ticket sales and betting revenue from live events. Another factor that could be contributing to the increase in short interest is the overall market sentiment towards traditional brick-and-mortar businesses. With the rise of online retail and entertainment options, many investors may see companies like Churchill Downs as outdated and vulnerable to disruption.
However, it is important to note that short interest does not necessarily reflect the true value of a company. It is merely a measure of market speculation and can be influenced by various factors such as current events and investor sentiment. Despite the surge in short interest, Churchill Downs remains a dominant player in the horse racing industry, with a strong brand and a diverse portfolio of assets. The company also recently announced plans to expand into online sports betting, which could potentially boost its revenue in the long term. In conclusion, while the increase in short interest may raise concerns for some investors, it is important to consider all factors and not solely base investment decisions on this metric. Only time will tell how Churchill Downs will weather the current challenges and continue to thrive in the competitive world of horse racing. Live Quote…
About the Company
Income Snapshot
Below shows the total revenue, net income and net margin for Churchill Downs. More…
| Total Revenues | Net Income | Net Margin |
| 2.46k | 417.3 | 14.4% |
Cash Flow Snapshot
Below shows the cash from operations, investing and financing for Churchill Downs. More…
| Operations | Investing | Financing |
| 605.8 | -718 | 129.3 |
Balance Sheet Snapshot
Below shows the total assets, liabilities and book value per share for Churchill Downs. More…
| Total Assets | Total Liabilities | Book Value Per Share |
| 6.96k | 6.06k | 11.98 |
Key Ratios Snapshot
Some of the financial key ratios for Churchill Downs are shown below. More…
| 3Y Rev Growth | 3Y Operating Profit Growth | Operating Margin |
| 32.7% | 96.1% | 33.7% |
| FCF Margin | ROE | ROA |
| -2.9% | 58.2% | 7.5% |
Analysis – Churchill Downs Stock Intrinsic Value
As a financial analysis firm, GoodWhale has conducted a thorough examination of the current welfare of CHURCHILL DOWNS. Our analysis includes various factors such as financial performance, industry trends, and overall market conditions. One of the key findings of our analysis is the intrinsic value of CHURCHILL DOWNS share. Through our proprietary Valuation Line, we have calculated it to be around $153.3. This value takes into account various metrics such as earnings growth, cash flow, and risk factors. This valuation serves as a benchmark for the fair price of the company’s stock. Currently, CHURCHILL DOWNS stock is trading at $144.2, which indicates that it is undervalued by 6.0%. This means that investors have an opportunity to purchase the stock at a lower price than its true worth. This undervaluation can be attributed to various factors such as market volatility and investor sentiment. At GoodWhale, we believe that CHURCHILL DOWNS has a strong potential for growth in the future. The company’s financial performance has been impressive, with steady revenue and earnings growth. Additionally, the increasing popularity of horse racing and the company’s expansion into online betting platforms bode well for its future prospects. In conclusion, our analysis shows that CHURCHILL DOWNS is currently undervalued and presents a good investment opportunity for those looking to add a stable and potentially profitable stock to their portfolio. With a fair price of $153.3 and a current trading price of $144.2, there is potential for investors to see a significant return on their investment in the long run. More…

Peers
It is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, United States. The company was founded in 1875 by Col. Meriwether Lewis Clark Jr. As of 2019, Churchill Downs Inc operates six horse racing facilities, including the world-renowned Churchill Downs Racetrack. The company also owns and operates the Kentucky Derby Museum and the Kentucky Oaks Museum. In addition to horse racing, Churchill Downs Inc also offers gaming and entertainment experiences through its subsidiaries, including Big Fish Casino, Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, and Hawthorne Race Course.
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Summary
In October, Churchill Downs Incorporated saw a notable increase in short interest, indicating a potential bearish sentiment among investors. This could be due to various factors such as negative news or concerns about the company’s future performance.
However, it is important to note that short interest alone does not reflect the entire picture and should be analyzed alongside other financial indicators. Investors should also consider conducting thorough research on the company’s fundamentals and future prospects before making any investment decisions. Overall, Churchill Downs’ short interest may serve as a red flag for investors but should not be the sole factor in determining investment choices.
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