Bilibili: A Look Ahead at Q1 2023 Earnings Results

🌥️ Bilibili, a rapidly growing Chinese video-sharing platform, is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings results on June 1st, 2023. The company has seen significant growth over the past year but has struggled to turn a profit, posting net losses in each of the past four quarters.

In this article, we will provide an analysis of Bilibili‘s upcoming earnings report from four different perspectives: fundamental analysis, technical analysis, historical guidance, and analyst estimates.

Fundamental Analysis

Bilibili‘s revenue growth has been impressive, with total revenue increasing from CNY 4.9 billion in Q2 2022 to CNY 6.1 billion in Q4 2022. However, the company has struggled to control its expenses, resulting in net losses each quarter. In Q4 2022, Bilibili posted a net loss of CNY 1.5 billion, a substantial increase from the CNY 2.3 billion net loss in Q1 2022.

Despite the net losses, Bilibili‘s user base is growing rapidly, with monthly active users increasing by 19% year-over-year in Q4 2022. The company also continues to invest in new content and services to retain and attract users, which may impact its bottom line in the short term but could pay off in the long run.

Technical Analysis

Bilibili‘s stock price has been volatile over the past three months, with a high of $25.6 and a low of $17.2. However, more recently, the stock has been on a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.9% over the past day and a 10.3% decrease over the past month.

Based on technical indicators such as moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), the stock appears to be oversold and could experience a rebound in the short term. However, investing in a volatile stock like Bilibili carries significant risk, and investors should carefully consider their investment strategy before buying or selling shares.

Historical Guidance

Historically, Bilibili has provided conservative revenue guidance, sometimes falling short of analysts’ expectations. In Q4 2022, the company forecasted revenue between CNY 6.3 billion and CNY 6.4 billion, which it narrowly missed with actual revenue of CNY 6.14 billion.

Because Bilibili is a relatively young company, historically comparing its financial data to industry benchmarks can be challenging. However, analyzing the company’s revenue growth and profitability trends over time can provide insight into its overall trajectory.

Analyst Estimates

As of May 25th, 2023, analysts are predicting a net loss of CNY 1.5 billion for Bilibili in Q1 2023, similar to the net loss posted in each of the past four quarters. Revenue estimates vary widely, with one analyst predicting revenue of CNY 5.5 billion and another predicting revenue of CNY 7.7 billion.

It’s essential to take analyst estimates with a grain of salt as they are based on publicly available information, and analysts can have varying opinions on a company’s future prospects. However, analyzing the range of analyst estimates can provide a good indication of the market’s expectations for a given company.

Conclusion

Bilibili‘s upcoming earnings report will be closely watched by investors as the company continues to experience rapid growth in its user base but struggles to turn a profit. From a fundamental perspective, the company’s revenue growth is impressive, but its net losses are concerning. From a technical perspective, the stock has been volatile, but indicators suggest it could experience a rebound in the short term.

Historically, Bilibili has been conservative with its revenue guidance, but its growth trajectory is positive overall. Analysts are predicting similar net losses to those posted in the past four quarters but have varying estimates for revenue.

As Bilibili‘s stock price is volatile, investors should carefully consider their investment strategy and risk tolerance before buying or selling shares based on the upcoming earnings report. However, the rapid growth of the company’s user base and investment in new content and services make it an exciting company to watch over the long term.